Selamat Datang Di Repository Universitas Royal

Availability of raw materials is a crucial factor in the beverage industry to maintain production continuity and operational efficiency. Momoyo Kisaran, as a beverage producer, faces challenges in accurately estimating raw material needs, which has the potential to cause excess stock. Therefore, a computer-based forecasting system is needed to increase the effectiveness of inventory management. This research aims to develop a forecasting system using the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method to predict the availability of raw materials more accurately. The results of this research show that an alpha value of 0.1 produces the lowest error rate for the Premium Tea product with an error value of 8.58%. Meanwhile, an alpha value of 0.1 gives the lowest error rate for the Bobba Pearl product with an error value of 11.3%, an alpha value of 0.1 gives the lowest error rate for the Nectar product with an error result of 33.72%, and an alpha value of 0.1 gives the lowest error rate for the Nata de Coco product with an error result of 8.96%. These results show that the SES method can be relied on to support more efficient raw material management. It is hoped that the implementation of this forecasting system can help companies develop more optimal raw material procurement strategies, thereby reducing the risk of stock imbalances and increasing production efficiency in the future.

Keywords: Forecasting, Raw Material Availability, Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Inventory Management, Production Efficiency.