Selamat Datang Di Repository Universitas Royal

ABSTRACT

ANALYSIS OF SYSTEM FOR DETERMINING PRIORITY PROPOSALS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH SAW AT SIDODADI LURAH OFFICE

By: Alya Maharani Rambe (21.22.0072)

Alcha Collection Store faces challenges in managing fashion product stock, which often results in stock shortages and lost sales opportunities. This problem arises due to the product procurement method which is still based on simple estimates without a systematic forecasting system. To overcome this, this study compares two sales forecasting methods, namely Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Single Moving Average (SMA), to determine the most accurate method in predicting future stock needs. This study uses Alcha Collection Store product sales data for the period April 2024 to March 2025. The implementation of the method is carried out using the Visual Basic programming language and MySQL database. The accuracy of the two methods is compared by measuring the error rate using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). The results of the study show that the method (mention the more accurate method based on the research results) has a lower error rate than other methods, making it more effective in forecasting product demand. By implementing a more accurate forecasting method, Alcha Collection Store can optimize stock management, reduce the risk of stockouts, and increase profitability.

Keywords: Sales Forecasting; Single Exponential Smoothing (SES); Single Moving Average (SMA); Stock Management; Visual Basic; MySQL